Hitting Runs
Which hitting statistic best correlates with total runs scored?
See analysis below:
Batting Average (AVG)
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
Slugging Percentage (SLG)
On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
Analysis
Of the statistics considered, OPS works best as an evaluator of team offense because it has the best correlation to runs scored. The table below lists the correlation coefficient - in which 1 is a perfect positive correlation and 0 is no correlation at all - for 20 seasons of team-by-team offensive data from 2003 to 2023.
| Batting Statistic | Correlation Coefficient |
|---|---|
| Batting average | 0.68 |
| On-base percentage | 0.84 |
| Slugging percentage | 0.92 |
| On-base plus slugging | 0.95 |
| Weighted on-base average | 0.92 |
For access to the raw data, calculations, statistical descriptions, and to see how the plots were generated, please visit the accompanying Observable notebook.